Our venture to calculate the 2020 presidential outcomes for all 435 congressional districts nationwide hits Iowa, the place Republicans had a sturdy yr. You may find our complete data set here, which we’re updating repeatedly because the precinct-level election returns we’d like for our calculations turn into accessible.
Regardless of preelection polls displaying a detailed race, Donald Trump received Iowa 53-45 over Joe Biden, which was solely a small enchancment for Democrats from Trump’s 52-42 victory in 2016 in what was as soon as a particularly aggressive state. Trump additionally as soon as once more carried all four of the Hawkeye State’s congressional districts (you may find a larger version of our map here), although there was one notable shift.
Trump captured the third District within the Des Moines space solely 49.1-49.0, which was decidedly weaker than his 49-45 displaying in 2016. That transfer to the left can also have made all of the distinction for freshman Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne, who beat former Republican Rep. David Young 49-48 in a rematch of their 2018 battle.
Sadly for Workforce Blue, although, the first and 2nd Districts in jap Iowa voted about the identical on this yr’s presidential race as they did in 2016. Certainly, each seats supported Trump 51-47 4 years after they every backed him by an an identical 49-45 unfold. Republican state Rep. Ashley Hinson unseated freshman Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer 51-49 within the 1st District, whereas as of this writing, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks holds a six-vote lead over Democrat Rita Hart within the Democratic-held 2nd District to the south.
Trump additionally romped to a 63-36 victory within the 4th District within the western a part of the state, which was just like his 61-34 efficiency in 2016. This district hosted an unexpectedly shut race in 2018 when white nationalist Rep. Steve King held off Democrat J.D. Scholten only 50-47. Nevertheless, state Sen. Randy Feenstra unseated King on this yr’s Republican main, and Feenstra went on to defeat Scholten 62-38 in November.
Republicans additionally maintained control of Iowa’s state government, and in the event that they determine to disregard many years of precedent, they’ll be capable to draw themselves an much more favorable congressional map. Below state legislation, a nonpartisan company proposes maps to the state legislature, however whereas lawmakers have at all times adopted them, the GOP now can simply reject the agency’s proposals and implement their very own gerrymanders, and even repeal the statute that created the company within the first place.