The popular narrative for Super Bowl 54 is that it features a classic offense-vs.-defense matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers, but because of Patrick Mahomes’ wizardry, it’s easy to forget that the 49ers actually averaged more points per game and yards per game than the Chiefs in the regular season. The Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers offense can keep up with anyone, so it’s not a crazy strategy to load up on Niners when making your DraftKings Showdown DFS lineups.
Of course, to do so, you have to fade some high-upside Chiefs players, which is never fun, but if the 49ers can control the ball and limit Mahomes, then you should enjoy a profitable Super Bowl.
Super Bowl DraftKings Showdown Picks: Chiefs vs. 49ers
CAPTAIN (1.5x points, 1.5x price): TE George Kittle, 49ers ($12,600)
The Chiefs tied for the third-most receptions allowed to tight ends during the regular season, and they’ve given up a TE touchdown in each of their two playoff games. Kittle has been uncharacteristically quiet in the receiving game in the playoffs (four catches, 35 yards), but we all know the kind of upside he has. Expect him to have a playoff moment on the biggest stage.
FLEX: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers ($8,000)
If we’re going to make Kittle our captain, then we want his QB on the roster, too. Garoppolo’s ceiling doesn’t feel all that high, but we expect he’ll have to do more in this game than he has in his other two playoff contests. If others fade him and he goes off, it will give our lineup an immediate boost.
FLEX: QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($12,600)
Even if you think Mahomes will be held down by the 49ers defense, it’s tough to fade him completely. He can put up 300 total yards and a pair of touchdowns in a bad game, so leaving him out of your lineup is a big risk.
FLEX: RB Raheem Mostert, 49ers ($9,400)
This feels like chasing points, but with Tevin Coleman (shoulder) dinged up and Matt Breida (one touch) a complete non-factor in the NFC Championship game, it’s tough to fade Mostert. We know the 49ers are going to run early and often, and Mostert is going to get the bulk of those carries. Kansas City has been better against the run in the playoffs, but this is still a defense that was gashed by backs repeatedly in the regular season. Someone is going to have success on the ground for the Niners, and Mostert is by far the most likely candidate, so we’ll pay up for him. If Coleman gets a clean bill of health, he makes for an interesting pivot (as does Breida if Coleman is declared out), but for now we’ll play it safe.
FLEX: WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs ($2,200)
If you’re going with a majority-49ers build, it makes sense to take a chance with either Hardman or Demarcus Robinson ($2,600). Both have big-play upside and can pay off their price tags with one reception. We like Hardman a little more because he also has the potential to return a kickoff for a touchdown. Either way, we’re taking a chance by fading Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, so we’ll be hoping for a Mahomes-Hardman TD connection here.
FLEX: K Robbie Gould, 49ers ($4,000)
The 49ers have had little trouble moving the ball in each of their playoff games, and we expect more of the same in the Super Bowl. Gould is five-for-five on field-goal attempts in the playoffs and hasn’t missed since having a 51-yard attempt in the rain blocked in Week 13.