We’ll begin with the 2nd, which was very shut within the prior two presidential contests: Barack Obama took it by a particularly slim 49.07-49.01 (a margin of 226 votes), whereas Trump received it 47-45 in 2016. The realm swung left in 2018, although, as Democrat Angie Craig unseated freshman Republican Rep. Jason Lewis 53-47 two years after shedding an open-seat contest to him.
2020 was one other good 12 months for Workforce Blue, although the realm nonetheless has a protracted technique to go earlier than Democrats can really feel protected right here: Biden took the 2nd 52-46, whereas Craig held off Republican Tyler Kistner by a smaller 48-46 in a contest that was briefly postponed following the loss of life of Authorized Marijuana Occasion Now candidate Adam Weeks.
The neighboring third District additionally started the last decade as a swing seat that Obama took solely 50-49, however Trump’s toxicity with well-educated suburbanites has radically altered its electoral panorama. Clinton received 51-41 right here in 2016, and two years later, Democrat Dean Phillips ousted Republican incumbent Erik Paulsen 56-44. The seat received worse for Republicans this 12 months, with Biden successful in a 59-39 landslide as Phillips turned in another 56-44 victory.
The 4th and fifth Districts have lengthy been Workforce Blue’s strongest areas in Minnesota, and that didn’t change this 12 months. Rep. Betty McCollum’s 4th District in St. Paul backed Biden 68-30, in comparison with 62-31 for Clinton. Fellow Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar’s fifth District in Minneapolis, in the meantime, supported Biden 80-18 4 years after going for Clinton 74-18.
We’ll flip now to the 4 Trump seats, beginning with the GOP’s pickup within the seventh District. This slice of rural western Minnesota has lengthy been pink turf, with Mitt Romney taking it 56-42, however it handed Peterson decisive wins as lately as 2014, even amidst the GOP wave. That every one started to alter in 2016, nevertheless, when Trump carried the district 62-31 and Peterson solely held off an underfunded Republican named Dave Hughes 52-47.
The same Peterson efficiency two years later in a rematch with Hughes served as a warning signal, particularly when Republicans landed a far stronger nominee in former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach for 2020. This time, Trump took the seventh District 64-34, solely a barely smaller margin than 4 years earlier and greater than sufficient to energy Fischbach to a strong 53-40 victory over the 15-term incumbent.
Republicans additionally retained their maintain on two different seats that had swung from Obama to Trump in 2016 and elected GOP members two years later. The first District within the southern a part of the state went from 50-48 Obama to 53-38 Trump. It swung again the next cycle, when Democratic Rep. Tim Walz left two years later to wage a profitable bid for governor, and Republican Jim Hagedorn beat Democrat Dan Feehan in a very close 50.1-49.7 contest.
Feehan sought a rematch this 12 months, and Democrats had been inspired by polls displaying Biden in place to return this district to the blue nook. Nevertheless, whereas Trump’s 54-44 displaying wasn’t fairly as sturdy because it was 4 years in the past, it was sufficient for Hagedorn to prevail 49-46.
The eighth District, positioned within the Iron Vary within the northeastern nook of the state, was a reliably blue space for many years, however these days are lengthy gone. The seat swung from 52-46 Obama to 54-39 Trump in 2016, and Trump took it by an solely barely smaller 56-42 this time. Republican Pete Stauber received the 2018 race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan 51-45 and prevailed 57-38 this 12 months.
The ultimate seat in Minnesota is the sixth District within the northern Twin Cities exurbs, a longtime Republican bastion held by NRCC chair Tom Emmer. The district backed Trump 59-39 this 12 months, a smaller margin than his 59-33 displaying in 2016, however nonetheless higher for Workforce Purple than Romney’s 56-42 efficiency.
Neither celebration has loved management of the redistricting course of in a long time, and courts have had to attract boundaries after the legislature and governor did not agree on a map. Democrats management the governor’s workplace and the state Home whereas Republicans have the Senate, so we’re doubtless in for an additional impasse this time.
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