Dwell Protection: Georgia Senate runoff elections


Tuesday brings the 2020 election cycle to a detailed with twin U.S. Senate runoff elections in Georgia that may resolve which occasion controls the chamber. As well as, there’s a runoff for a seat on Georgia’s five-member Public Service Commission. Word that as a result of excessive quantity of mail-in votes, we might not know the ultimate final result of those races tonight.

Sources: ResultsCounty Benchmarks

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 3:41:53 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

We’re almost 4 hours into the counting, and all eyes are on Atlanta’s DeKalb County, the place a block of about 171,000 votes are on account of be recorded any minute now. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, the 2 Republicans, have modest leads (83,000 and 115,000, respectively), however DeKalb is so intensely blue (normally over 80-20 for Democrats) that this set of votes alone may put Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff into the lead.

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 3:55:21 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

We simply bought a fairly vital drop out of Cobb County, and it was fairly good for Democrats. Consequently, the Republican leads dropped to 66Ok votes (Loeffler) and 98Ok votes (Perdue). And that’s with out the 171,000 votes pending from DeKalb.

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 3:56:19 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

File this within the “ugh” file: Chatham County (Savannah) has introduced that they’re accomplished for the night time. They nonetheless have 1000’s of votes to rely. It’s a must to hope these votes merely don’t matter besides to pad the chief’s margin.

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 4:17:57 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

At current, with a little bit of a lull within the rely, let’s take inventory of what stays.

The excellent news for the Republicans is that they at the moment have the leads. Kelly Loeffler is presently up 82,100 votes, whereas David Perdue has, as he has all night, a much bigger edge at 115,300 votes.

The unhealthy information? They’re cashed out. There are principally two counties left in the entire state which might be crimson counties and have any appreciable vote left. Bartow County might have about 25-30Ok remaining, and Espresso County might have about 8-10Ok nonetheless excellent.

So why are Democrats nonetheless optimistic? As a result of they nonetheless have at least 171,000 votes left in one in every of their greatest massive counties: DeKalb. It is vitally doable the Democrats may pull 100-120Ok out of simply DeKalb, and there could also be extra votes to rely by mail. In the meantime, Fulton County (Atlanta) in all probability has one other 20-40Ok left to rely, and Henry County may need one other 10-20Ok votes. In different phrases, there’s a ton nonetheless on the market on blue turf.

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 4:20:07 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

And there goes DeKalb. Notably, not all of it (about 160Ok), however a major chunk. And that alone pulled Jon Ossoff to only a 3100 vote drawback towards David Perdue, and it pulled Raphael Warnock right into a 32,000 vote lead over Kelly Loeffler.


Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 4:26:25 AM +00:00

·
Steve Singiser

In the event you simply observed that David Perdue’s lead expanded out to 16,000 votes, and Kelly Loeffler moved inside 20,000 votes of Raphael Warnock, that’s truly first rate information for the Democrats.

That was the final vote drop of any consequence for the GOP lastly hitting the boards: Bartow County. A GOP +50 county, and it’s now within the books. The Republicans netted fairly a bit, however nearly actually not sufficient.

By our tough estimates, there are in all probability about 20-30Ok left to rely in DeKalb, in all probability the identical in Fulton and Cobb, plus one other 20Ok or so in Henry and Chatham. All blue counties.

At this level, it’d be stunning for Ossoff to not reclaim the lead, given how blue DeKalb and Fulton each are.



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