New ballot indicators potential dip in GOP voter participation in upcoming elections


In whole, 75% of respondents mentioned the election had made them extra prone to vote within the subsequent presidential contest, whereas solely 11% mentioned they have been much less seemingly to take action. However the partisan breakdown was notable: Whereas 84% of Democrats counted themselves extra prone to vote, simply 69% of Republicans agreed, a 15-point distinction. The truth is, 16% of GOP respondents mentioned they have been much less prone to vote subsequent round in comparison with simply 6% of Democrats who mentioned the identical.

The outcomes are to be taken with a grain of salt for a number of causes, together with the failure of surveys all through the 2020 cycle to precisely seize help for Trump. However even when this ballot didn’t get the correct mix of conservative voters, the responses are nonetheless telling for the Republicans who did take part within the survey. As well as, as The Washington Submit’s Aaron Blake notes, self-identified Trump voters fashioned the group most probably to sign doubt about their future participation, with practically 1 in 5 (or 19%) saying they have been much less prone to vote subsequent time round.

Bar graph showing Trump voters most likely to say they are less likely to vote in the next presidential election at 19%, while 16% of Republican voters said the same.

The outcomes usually mirror the potential for a considerably depressed GOP base heading into the Georgia runoffs. And whereas it is arduous to conclude a lot—if something—about turnout in these all-important races on Jan. fifth, the information cannot be welcome information for GOP strategists already fretting over what impact Trump’s continued assaults on the state’s voting techniques may have on conservative voters.

The survey additionally represents a departure from previous post-election polls. In 2016, as an example, 80% of each Democratic and Republican voters signaled the election had made them extra prone to vote within the subsequent election. These outcomes have been additionally according to ends in 2000, with 80% of voters on each side of the aisle indicating they might be extra prone to vote subsequent time round at the same time as post-election litigation continued over the race’s final result.

Turnout within the Georgia runoff is a complete thriller, with zero comparable priors to lend perception. We’re all flying blind right here however at the least Democrats are coming off a win within the state and aren’t encumbered by an ongoing civil war inside their occasion. 

We need all hands on deck to win the Georgia Senate runoffs on Jan. 5, and you can volunteer from wherever you are. Click here to see the Georgia volunteer activities that work best for you.

  





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