NFL win whole predictions for 2021


Regardless that the 2021 NFL season is roughly 5 months from kicking off, it is by no means too early to invest about win totals. Or to gamble on them.

So far as the latter is worried, Caesars William Hill launched its preliminary projected win totals for every staff for the approaching season. There’s quite a bit that can nonetheless occur between from time to time, with the NFL draft later this month being a significant occasion to come back. However NFL over/unders are open for wagering beginning Friday, so we requested our 32 NFL Nation writers to handicap the win totals of the groups they cowl based mostly on the preliminary Caesars William Hill numbers listed beneath.

There may be loads of optimism from our reporters concerning the fortunes of the groups they cowl, somewhat pessimism and the occasional pragmatic push right here and there. Whether or not it is optimism about operating it again with a successful staff (just like the Tremendous Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers), giddiness about offseason additions (New England Patriots) or adopting a wait-and-see strategy for rebuilding conditions (Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets), NFL Nation is right here to supply keen bettors with early recommendation.

Soar to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

AFC EAST

Over/beneath: 10.5

Prediction: Over

Buffalo has reached double-digit wins in every of its previous two seasons and, barring damage, ought to function one of many league’s most explosive offenses for the second yr in a row. An additional residence sport helps a Payments staff that gained 9 video games at its personal stadium final season, and if the protection returns to form, one other journey to the AFC Championship Recreation needs to be in retailer. — Marcel Louis-Jacques


Over/beneath: 9

Prediction: Over, barely

I anticipate the Dolphins to match their 10-win whole from 2020, contemplating they’ve an additional sport by which to do it. Miami performed extra rookies than another staff in 2020, together with QB Tua Tagovailoa and three beginning offensive linemen, so pure growth and the signing of free-agent receiver Will Fuller V ought to make that group higher. The power of this staff, a No. 5-ranked protection, largely stays intact, and the Dolphins return 19 of 22 whole starters to couple with two upcoming first-round picks. — Cameron Wolfe


Over/beneath: 9

Prediction: Over

Invoice Belichick and his teaching workers squeezed seven wins out of a 2020 staff with lesser expertise. Now that the Patriots have infused the roster with extra expertise as a consequence of a free-agency blitz that noticed them improve at tight finish (Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith), pass-rusher (Matthew Judon) and several other different positions — together with a 17-game schedule — the potential of 10 wins appears life like. — Mike Reiss


Over/beneath: 6

Prediction: Beneath

New teaching workers, new quarterback (a rookie). That screams “transition yr” for the Jets. They can not be worse than final season (2-14), however it will likely be tough to prime six wins. Their new QB, presumably BYU’s Zach Wilson, will expertise rising pains, as most rookies do. There’s not sufficient expertise round him to offset that. This season can be all about solidifying the quarterback place and establishing Robert Saleh’s program. The rebuilding continues. — Wealthy Cimini

AFC NORTH

Over/beneath: 11

Prediction: Push

This can be a robust name as a result of Lamar Jackson has gained an NFL-best 81% of his video games since taking up as Baltimore’s starter halfway via the 2018 season and the Ravens return 19 starters from a staff that gained 11 video games final season. However after profiting from the league’s best schedule in 2020, the Ravens face the NFL’s second-toughest schedule this yr (.559). With Jackson and a powerful protection, projecting 10 or 11 wins is life like. It is tough to foretell greater than 11 when Baltimore has its most tough schedule of the John Harbaugh period, at the least by opponent document. Six of the Ravens’ 9 residence video games are towards groups that reached the playoffs final season. — Jamison Hensley


Over/beneath: 6.5

Prediction: Over

The Bengals are in 12 months Three of a deep rebuilding challenge beneath coach Zac Taylor. If QB Joe Burrow is accessible in Week 1, Cincinnati needs to be in rivalry to surpass the .500 mark. The Bengals ought to give Burrow at the least one large offensive help within the draft and have spent some huge cash on defensive upgrades. All of these issues ought to produce at the least seven wins. Something lower than that can put Taylor and the entrance workplace beneath hearth. — Ben Child

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Desmond Howard explains why he believes it’s going to be tough for the Buccaneers to repeat as Tremendous Bowl champions.

Over/beneath: 10

Prediction: Over

The Browns gained 11 video games final yr regardless of a brand new teaching workers, a number of key gamers lacking video games as a consequence of COVID-19 and shedding wideout Odell Beckham Jr. to a season-ending knee damage in October. Cleveland lastly has continuity on offense round QB Baker Mayfield, whereas GM Andrew Berry has bolstered the team’s defensive talent this offseason, including security John Johnson III and defensive finish Jadeveon Clowney. Sure, the AFC North is hard. However so are these Browns. — Jake Trotter


Over/beneath: 9

Prediction: Beneath

Sure, this goes towards historical past. Mike Tomlin has not had a shedding season in his 14 seasons, tying Marty Schottenheimer for the longest such streak to start out an NFL head-coaching profession. However the Steelers crumbled down the stretch final season, shedding 5 of their final six video games, together with a playoff loss to the Browns. Now, Pittsburgh should play the NFL’s hardest schedule with a 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger taking part in behind a suspect offensive line. It feels as if Pittsburgh is nearing a rebuilding section. — Jamison Hensley

AFC SOUTH

Over/beneath: 5

Prediction: Beneath

The Texans gained fewer video games in 2020 with quarterback Deshaun Watson taking part in one of the best soccer of his NFL profession. Whereas there was a number of turnover on the roster, the staff would not appear to have actually improved this offseason. Houston is not positive what Watson’s standing can be for the 2021 season as a result of he’s facing 22 lawsuits alleging sexual assault and harassment, and the Texans doubtless anticipate Tyrod Taylor to start out at quarterback in September. — Sarah Barshop


Over/beneath: 10

Prediction: Push

This is not a sign that the 2021 roster — minus this yr’s draft picks — can be worse than final yr’s, which completed 11-5 and reached the playoffs. It is extra that the Colts’ schedule can be harder, having to face the NFC West together with the Tremendous Bowl champion Buccaneers. Between these 5 video games and having to additionally face the Ravens, Payments and Titans (twice), repeating final yr’s 11 wins could possibly be tough, even with an extra sport to take action. — Mike Wells

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Stephen A. Smith nonetheless is not satisfied that Cleveland has a staff that may be thought of a Tremendous Bowl favourite.

Over/beneath: 6

Prediction: Beneath

With all the joy surrounding the rent of City Meyer and the anticipated number of Trevor Lawrence, folks appear to overlook that the Jaguars’ protection gave up essentially the most yards and factors in franchise historical past in 2020. They did tackle that facet of the ball in free company with CB Shaquill Griffin, S Rayshawn Jenkins, DT Roy Robertson-Harris and DE Jihad Ward. They will add extra gamers within the draft, however anticipating that to be sufficient to maneuver Jacksonville into the center of the league defensively is a attain. Which locations a number of stress on the rookie QB towards a schedule that features journeys to Seattle, the Los Angeles Rams and New England. — Mike DiRocco


Over/beneath: 9.5

Prediction: Over

The Titans have discovered a option to win at the least 9 video games in every of the previous 4 seasons, successful 11 video games final yr regardless of a porous protection that gave up an NFL-worst 51.7% third-down conversion price and generated solely 19 sacks. Titans GM Jon Robinson added Denico Autry and Bud Dupree to assist repair that drawback. The offense may not maintain tempo with the 2020 unit that scored 30 factors per sport, however any group that features Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Ryan Tannehill is greater than sufficient to win 10 video games and compete for an additional AFC South division title. — Turron Davenport

AFC WEST

Over/beneath quantity: 7.5

Prediction: Over

However over might actually simply imply the primary 8-9 end in franchise historical past, leading to a sixth consecutive playoff miss, if the Broncos aren’t extra of a menace to attain greater than 16 factors a sport. They scored 16 or fewer factors six instances final season and 20 or fewer factors 11 instances. Except there may be blockbuster in retailer on draft weekend, Denver is banking on quarterback Drew Lock being a lot better in 2021. The return of vast receiver Courtland Sutton from final yr’s ACL surgical procedure will assist Lock’s trigger, and defensive enhancements in free company will give the Broncos sufficient pop to get again within the playoff dialog. — Jeff Legwold


Over/beneath: 12

Prediction: Push

I would take the beneath if the road had been at 12.5 as a result of it would not determine to be straightforward. However the Chiefs have gained 12 video games in every of the previous three seasons and 4 of the previous 5 and there is no purpose to imagine they are going to go beneath this season with an extra regular-season sport on the schedule. Kansas Metropolis has had a successful streak of at the least 5 video games in every of Andy Reid’s eight seasons. If the Chiefs can get one other one, they will should be solely barely over .500 the remainder of the best way to get to 12 wins. — Adam Teicher


Over/beneath: 8

Prediction: Over

Alert the Las Vegas sportsbooks. If for no different purpose than the Raiders have improved from 4 wins in Jon Gruden’s return to the sideline in 2018 to seven wins in 2019 to eight final season. So, if 1 plus 1 nonetheless equals 2, an enchancment is imminent, no? Actually, the larger query is whether or not they are going to collapse on the finish once more, as they did in shedding 5 of six to finish the 2019 season and 5 of seven final yr. — Paul Gutierrez


Over/beneath: 9

Prediction: Over

The Chargers have the reigning Rookie of the 12 months in quarterback Justin Herbert and have shored up safety on the offensive line, signing the most effective facilities within the league in All-Professional Corey Linsley. They signed TE Jared Cook to exchange Hunter Henry, and have Keenan Allen at WR and Austin Ekeler wholesome at RB. Defensively, Los Angeles will get Derwin James again and a wholesome Joey Bosa. The Chargers could possibly be one of the best within the West. — Shelley Smith

NFC EAST

Over/beneath: 9.5

Prediction: Beneath, barely

And by barely, go together with 9. As a lot as optimism will reign with the returns to well being of Dak Prescott, Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, La’el Collins and Blake Jarwin, the Cowboys’ protection has quite a bit to show with a brand new coordinator in Dan Quinn. Possibly they are going to have the entire solutions, however the Cowboys’ nondivision schedule appears to be tough. Dallas performs at Kansas Metropolis, at Tampa Bay, at New England and at New Orleans. It’s attainable the Cowboys will lose all of these video games, which places a premium on the remainder of the schedule to succeed in greater than 9.5 wins. After all, 9 wins might nonetheless win the NFC East. — Todd Archer


Over/beneath: 7

Prediction: Over

The Giants gained six video games final season with an offense that scored the second fewest factors per sport (17.5) within the NFL. They’re mainly including Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay in a season when there’ll now be 17 video games. Issues must go actually improper for Daniel Jones & Co. to not be considerably higher on that facet of the ball this yr. It is Jones’ third season, his second yr in Jason Garrett’s offense, and there was a big increase in playmakers. It is attainable for New York to have a shedding document and nonetheless go over its win whole. — Jordan Raanan


Over/beneath: 7

Prediction: Over

It has been doom and gloom in Philadelphia after the Eagles’ 4-11-1 marketing campaign in 2020, and rightfully so. Nonetheless, there’s purpose to imagine they are often extra aggressive this season. Projected starter Jalen Hurts is bound to supply a better stage of play than the departed Carson Wentz did in 2020 and can be working behind an offensive line that’s formidable when wholesome. The identical might be mentioned for the defensive entrance, which can be backed by Anthony Harris and Darius Slay within the secondary. Philadelphia will profit sufficient from a last-place schedule to climb out of the NFC East basement and hit get eight or 9 wins. — Tim McManus


Over/beneath: 8

Prediction: Over, barely

Washington benefited from a nasty division final yr and now, on paper, has a tougher schedule — its 17th sport is at Buffalo, one in every of six playoff groups on the docket. However Washington was a younger staff that went via 4 beginning quarterbacks final season. Its coach, Ron Rivera, battled most cancers in the course of the season. But it completed robust. It improved at quarterback with Ryan Fitzpatrick, added a playmaker in receiver Curtis Samuel and upgraded at nook with William Jackson III. The protection was fourth in factors allowed and second in yards in 2020. The staff is way from a completed product and is a yr away from dreaming of a deep run, however it may possibly win 9 or 10 video games. — John Keim

NFC NORTH

Over/beneath: 7.5

Prediction: Beneath

It is exhausting to examine eight wins or extra due to the uncertainty on offense. Andy Dalton had a very good run in Cincinnati, however his finest days could be in the rearview mirror. Defensively, Chicago nonetheless boasts Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and Roquan Smith, however shedding cornerback Kyle Fuller (cap casualty) opens a large gap within the secondary. The Bears are unlikely to backside out, however it will likely be difficult to succeed in final yr’s win whole, even with an additional regular-season sport. — Jeff Dickerson


Over/beneath: 5

Prediction: Over

Out with the outdated. In with the brand new. Detroit Lions soccer is getting into a distinct period, and, fairly frankly, we do not know what that appears like. After a dozen seasons in Motown, the franchise’s profession passing chief, Matthew Stafford, has been changed with former Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff. Beneath new management, headed by basic supervisor Brad Holmes together with rookie head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions will come out sizzling as they’re seeking to show themselves. I see them successful six video games, barely greater than what the sports activities betting world says. — Eric Woodyard


Over/beneath: 11

Prediction: Over

Certain, the checklist of opponents appears brutally tough (Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Seahawks and Rams amongst them), however the Packers look as in the event that they’re operating it again for yet one more shot at a Tremendous Bowl with largely the identical staff that went 13-Three final yr and reached the NFC title sport for the second straight season. The caveat right here is that the entire thing must not go to pieces between Aaron Rodgers and the group earlier than the top of the yr. — Rob Demovsky


Over/beneath: 8.5

Prediction: Over, however simply barely

The Vikings used all their sources on retooling the protection in free company and may fare much better towards the run with the addition of Dalvin Tomlinson and the return of Michael Pierce, plus they lastly have depth and expertise within the secondary by including Patrick Peterson, Xavier Woods and Mackensie Alexander. However Minnesota nonetheless has a handful of points to handle on the offensive line. If the Vikings do not repair their points in go safety, this offense will not be as explosive because it was a yr in the past, which might price the staff within the win column. — Courtney Cronin

NFC SOUTH

Over/beneath: 7

Prediction: Push

Vegas is normally spot-on with these numbers, and the Falcons have gained seven or fewer video games in every of the previous three seasons. Their 2020 season was a little bit of an outlier at 4-12 after 7-9 seasons in 2018 and 2019. If — and it is a large if — the staff’s stars can keep wholesome, then the Falcons might attain eight or 9 wins. But when anybody of significance had been to overlook a number of weeks, significantly on protection, this goes from over to at-the-line or beneath actual fast. Apart from receiver and defensive position, Atlanta would not have the depth to deal with accidents to starters, although the upcoming draft might assist. — Michael Rothstein

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Louis Riddick says Trevor Lawrence must be totally dedicated to win if he needs to be one of many NFL’s finest quarterbacks.

Over/beneath: 7.5

Prediction: Over

It should be shut, however keep in mind this staff went 5-11 final season, shedding eight video games by which it had an opportunity to win or tie on the ultimate possession, together with a 33-31 setback at Kansas Metropolis. The Panthers had been aggressive of their first yr beneath coach Matt Rhule, and that was with out operating again Christian McCaffrey for 13 video games. With a wholesome McCaffrey and upgrades to the offensive line and protection, Carolina has an opportunity to win eight to 10 video games if new quarterback Sam Darnold can avoid the big mistakes that haunted him with the Jets. That is an enormous if, since Darnold’s profession document is 13-25. — David Newton


Over/beneath: 9.5

Prediction: Over

I would not wager with an excessive amount of confidence because the Saints are extra of an unknown commodity than typical after Drew Brees‘ retirement and the lack of another salary-cap casualties. However that is nonetheless one of many NFL’s most gifted rosters and New Orleans can depend on its protection, run sport and offensive line when wanted. Keep in mind, this staff went 12-Four final season regardless of Brees struggling early after which lacking 4 video games with vital accidents later within the season. The Saints ought to want simply first rate play from Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill to return to the playoffs. — Mike Triplett


Over/beneath: 11.5

Prediction: Over

The Bucs reached 11 wins with none kind of offseason to assist Tom Brady acclimate to a very new system. This yr, Brady is aware of the system and Tampa Bay returns all 22 starters on offense and protection from the Tremendous Bowl. I do not see the Bucs shedding twice to a Saints staff that does not have Drew Brees, and their schedule could be very manageable, with their opponents ending a mixed 126-145-1 in 2020. — Jenna Laine

NFC WEST

Over/beneath quantity: 8

Prediction: Over, however not by a lot

The Cardinals have added the mandatory items to win extra video games in 2021, however the query will at all times come all the way down to whether or not they can really do it. They completed 8-Eight final season, however with the additions of WR A.J. Green, RB James Conner, DE J.J. Watt and Ok Matt Prater, Arizona ought to win a sport or two extra. 9 wins appears doubtless, and 10 would not come as a shock. — Josh Weinfuss


Over/beneath quantity: 10.5

Prediction: Over, by just a bit

The Rams have revamped their offense by buying and selling for quarterback Matthew Stafford and signing receiver DeSean Jackson, plus three-time NFL Defensive Participant of the 12 months Aaron Donald and All-Professional cornerback Jalen Ramsey return to the NFL’s top-ranked protection. Regardless of a grueling division schedule, Los Angeles’ nondivision opponents make a 10.5-win-plus season attainable with a schedule that features a number of groups which might be anticipated to have less-than-stellar showings, together with Detroit, Jacksonville, the New York Giants and Houston. — Lindsey Thiry


Over/beneath quantity: 10

Prediction: Over, barely

The 49ers imagine final season was an injury-ravaged aberration and 2019 was nearer to who they are surely when wholesome. You would be hard-pressed to discover a staff that had extra damage points than San Francisco did final season, which suggests there’s purpose to imagine in at the least some regression to the imply in 2021. If that occurs, together with a last-place schedule, the 49ers ought to be capable of push again into the vary of 10 to 11 wins. — Nick Wagoner

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Tedy Bruschi and Kimberley A. Martin focus on whether or not the Falcons will draft a QB or commerce again for extra picks.

Over/beneath quantity: 10

Prediction: Over

The Seahawks have averaged 10.33 wins per yr in 16-game schedules over the previous six seasons. Their worst season in that stretch was a 9-7 end in 2017, after they had no run sport and their protection was ravaged by accidents. Thus, 9 wins looks like a baseline for the Seahawks so long as they’ve Russell Wilson taking part in like a top-five quarterback. Assuming the Seahawks do not commerce him this yr — seemingly a protected wager at this level — Wilson plus a powerful forged of weapons and a protection with a deep go rush ought to prime 10 wins in a 16-game season. The over appears even higher with a 17th sport. — Brady Henderson



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