Odds for NASCAR race at Talladega: Skilled picks & favorites to win Sunday’s Cup Sequence race

Even with assistance from NASCAR race odds, selecting a winner at Talladega is the racing equal of throwing a peg at a dart board. Whereas NASCAR not makes use of restrictor plates at it is pair of superspeedways, the dynamics at Daytona and Talladega are such that the everyday benefits some groups have over others are erased by pack racing.

Including to the issue issue with regards to selecting a winner at Talladega is the truth that Sunday’s race would be the first Cup Sequence occasion below a brand new guidelines package deal geared toward enhancing security. The rule modifications embody classes discovered from NASCAR’s investigation into Ryan Newman’s terrifying crash on the final lap of the Daytona 500 in February.

And since NASCAR is preserving groups away from the monitor as a lot as attainable throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no follow session forward of Sunday’s race at Talladega with this new package deal.

MORE: Full beginning lineup for NASCAR race at Talladega

The important thing rule modifications for Talladega are the elimination of aero ducts within the entrance of vehicles and a discount within the dimension of the throttle physique (from 59/64” to 57/64”). The latter ought to gradual the vehicles down by an estimate of 1 second per lap.

“As drivers, we’ll determine it out fairly fast, how the runs are and the way the dealing with is (with the brand new package deal),” stated Joey Logano, talking with Sporting Information this week on behalf of Panini America. “However do not get me incorrect. There are many questions. It takes drag off the automobile, but it surely provides downforce to the automobile. The automobile ought to deal with rather well, however does that convey the pack even nearer? Numerous unknowns.”

Beneath are the whole Vegas odds to win Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Sequence race at Talladega, plus our prime three picks of drivers who may find yourself taking the checkered flag.

NASCAR race odds to win at Homestead

Chase Elliott is the favourite for Sunday’s Geico 500 with good purpose. He received this race final 12 months, and he holds the perfect profession driver ranking at Talladega amongst these within the area. His common operating place of 10.791 is the perfect within the Cup Sequence at Talladega.

Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, under are the whole odds to win Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Sequence race at Talladega.

DriverOdds to win Homestead race
Chase Elliott+850
Brad Keselowski+900
Joey Logano+900
Denny Hamlin+1000
Kevin Harvick+1100
Kyle Busch+1100
Martin Truex Jr.+1100
Ryan Blaney+1100
Kurt Busch+1600
Alex Bowman+2200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.+2200
Aric Almirola+2600
Clint Bowyer+2600
Jimmie Johnson+2600
Tyler Reddick+2600
William Byron+2900
Austin Dillon+4000
Bubba Wallace+4000
Erik Jones+4000
Matt DiBenedetto+4000
Ryan Newman+4500
Chris Buescher+5000
Christopher Bell+5000
Matt Kenseth+5000
Brendan Gaughan+6500
Cole Custer+6500
John Hunter Nemechek+6500
Michael McDowell+6500
Ryan Preece+6500
Ty Dillon+6500
Brennan Poole+17000
Corey LaJoie+17000
Daniel Suarez+17000
BJ McLeod+20000
JJ Yeley+20000
Joey Gase+20000
Quin Houff+20000
Timmy Hill+20000

Whereas Elliott is the favourite, the teammates of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are shut behind within the odds as a result of Group Penske (and Ford generally) has been so dominant at Talladega of late.

When Elliott received the spring race at Talladega final 12 months, it marked the primary time a non-Ford had received on the 2.5-mile monitor since Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2015. Fords had received seven straight Cup Sequence races at Talladega, and 5 of these victories got here from Penske drivers.

Beneath are the highest 10 profession driver scores at Talladega amongst these in Sunday’s area, beginning with Elliott and Logano.

  1. Chase Elliott, 94.1
  2. Joey Logano, 90.6
  3. Kurt Busch, 90.4
  4. Brad Keselowski, 89.3
  5. Ryan Blaney, 89.0
  6. Matt Kenseth, 86.9
  7. Jimmie Johnson, 86.4
  8. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 84.4
  9. Denny Hamlin, 82.8
  10. Kyle Busch, 82.2

Keselowski leads all lively drivers with 5 profession Cup Sequence wins at Talladega, adopted by Logano with three. Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson have two Talladega wins every.

For no matter purpose second place statistically is a more adept beginning place than the pole at Talladega. It has produced extra race winners (20) within the Cup Sequence than every other beginning place. A complete of 14 pole sitters at Talladega have received the race. Denny Hamlin will begin Sunday’s race second subsequent to pole sitter Martin Truex Jr.

Beneath is the breakdown of wins from various beginning positions within the historical past of Cup racing at Talladega.

Beginning placeProfitable %Wins
1st13. 86 p.c14
Entrance row33.66 p.c34
High 554.46 p.c55
High 1071.29 p.c72
Outdoors prime 207.92 p.c8

The highest 10 starters for Sunday’s race at Talladega are as follows: 1. Martin Truex Jr., 2. Denny Hamlin, 3. Kyle Busch, 4. Jimmie Johnson, 5. Kevin Harvick, 6. Brad Kselowski, 7. Kurt Busch, 8. Alex Bowman, 9. Joey Logano, 10. Clint Bowyer

MORE: Up to date NASCAR schedule for 2020

NASCAR at Talladega knowledgeable picks

(All NASCAR loop information stats are from 2005 via current.)

1. Joey Logano

Profession stats at Talladega:

  • Three wins, eight prime fives, 10 prime 10s
  • Common end of 16.182 (sixth-best)
  • Common operating place of 14.079 (fifth-best)
  • Driver ranking of 90.6 (second-best)
  • 86 quickest laps run (ninth-best)
  • 2,673 laps in prime 15; 63.Eight p.c (seventh-most)
  • 5,306 high quality passes (eighth-most)

Think about this our compulsory Group Penske/Ford decide. Ford has received 11 of the final 15 Talladega Cup Sequence races (73.Three p.c), and Group Penske particularly has received sven of the final 11 (63.6 p.c). Keselowski has essentially the most wins at Talladega, however Logano has the perfect driver ranking on the monitor. Their teammate Ryan Blaney received the autumn Talladega race final 12 months.

2. Kurt Busch

Profession stats at Talladega:

  • Eight prime fives, 20 prime 10s
  • Common end of 16.167 (fifth-best)
  • Common operating place of 13.566 (third-best)
  • Driver ranking of 90.4 (third-best)
  • 98 quickest laps run (seventh-best)
  • 3,829 laps in prime 15; 67.1 p.c (series-most)
  • 7,931 high quality passes (series-most)

Busch has by no means received at Talladega, however he tends to run nicely at superspeedways. Mix that with the truth that the No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing group has proven pace in 2020, and Busch is an effective upset decide for Sunday’s race.

3. Chase Elliott

Profession stats at Talladega:

  • One win, three prime fives, 4 prime 10s
  • Common end of 13.250 (second-best)
  • Common operating place of 10.791 (series-best)
  • Driver ranking of 94.1 (series-best)
  • 30 quickest laps run (24th-best)
  • 1,119 laps in prime 15; 73.Eight p.c (16th-most)
  • 1,910 high quality passes (18th-most)

Hendrick Motorsports (and Chevy generally) has been stronger in 2020 than it was final season, when Elliott received at Talladega for his first profession superspeedway victory. That is a very good signal for the driving force who statistically is the perfect within the area at this specific monitor.

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