U.S. Intelligence Sees Russian Plan for Potential Ukraine Invasion

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration’s rising alarm a couple of potential Russian invasion of Ukraine relies partially on U.S. intelligence that Moscow has drawn up plans for a navy offensive involving an estimated 175,000 troops as quickly as early subsequent yr.

An unclassified U.S. intelligence doc particulars a few of the intelligence findings, together with the positioning of what officers say might finally be 100 battalion tactical teams, in addition to heavy armor, artillery and different tools.

The intelligence was first reported on Friday by The Washington Post.

U.S. officers stress that the intentions of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia stay unclear, and the intelligence doesn’t present that he has determined to hold out the obvious warfare plan.

However the intelligence depicts a Russian navy machine springing into motion and positioning itself for an assault towards which specialists say Ukraine’s navy would stand little probability. About half of the Russian forces that may be utilized in an invasion are already close to Ukraine’s border, and Moscow is shifting swiftly to construct up a big pressure of contract navy reservists, in response to a Biden administration official who spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate delicate intelligence.

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would set off a serious nationwide safety disaster for Europe and the Biden administration, which has declared an “ironclad dedication” to Ukraine’s borders and independence.

The doc options satellite tv for pc pictures indicating a buildup of Russian troops and tools close to Ukraine’s japanese border, and says that Russian plans contain shifting forces to and from Ukraine’s border “to obfuscate intentions and create uncertainty.”

The priority about Mr. Putin’s intentions has been fueled by what U.S. officers name a rise in Russian media disinformation describing NATO and Ukraine as threats to Russia, probably to create a pretext for a Russian escalation. The administration official mentioned that Russian officers had additionally proposed info operations inside Ukraine portraying that nation’s leaders as Western puppets performing towards their nation’s pursuits.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken mentioned on Thursday that President Biden was more likely to communicate immediately with Mr. Putin quickly, and the Kremlin said on Friday that the leaders would conduct a video name subsequent week.

“We’ve been conscious of Russia’s actions for a very long time and my expectation is we’re going to have a protracted dialogue,” Mr. Biden instructed reporters Friday night time when requested about the potential for Russia invading Ukraine.

A Nationwide Safety Council spokesperson mentioned on Friday night time that the US didn’t search battle with Russia and believed diplomacy was the easiest way to avert a disaster and forestall US.-Russian relations from spiraling additional downward.

U.S. officers have hinted vaguely in latest days that they’ve particular causes for his or her heightened concern about an invasion of Russia’s neighbor, a former Soviet republic that Mr. Putin considers a rightful a part of Russia.

Talking to reporters in Stockholm, Sweden on Thursday, Mr. Blinken referred to “proof that Russia has made plans for important aggressive strikes towards Ukraine.” Talking to reporters on his official aircraft later that day, Normal Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Workers, referred to “warnings from an intelligence standpoint,” saying “there’s sufficient on the market now to trigger a number of concern.”

Mr. Blinken and different U.S. officers have been consulting with U.S. allies in Europe to plot retaliatory measures towards attainable Russian aggression towards Ukraine, the place Mr. Putin has lengthy backed a pro-Moscow separatist insurgency and in 2014 annexed the Crimean Peninsula.

Mr. Blinken mentioned this week that the US would reply to “Russian aggression towards Ukraine” with “high-impact financial measures that we’ve avoided taking up to now,” however didn’t present extra particulars.

Mr. Blinken conveyed that warning throughout a Thursday assembly in Stockholm with Russia’s overseas minister, Sergey Lavrov. However it’s unclear whether or not Mr. Putin might be deterred by such threats.

Talking to reporters after his assembly with Mr. Blinken, Mr. Lavrov appeared to scoff on the risk, noting that the US has repeatedly sanctioned Russia in new and alternative ways in recent times.

“There’s all the time a primary time,” Mr. Lavrov mentioned. “There have been different sanctions they avoided taking up to now.”

Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting.

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